In July 2024, I had the privilege to be perhaps the only independent Western researcher allowed to observe Rwanda’s Presidential and parliamentary elections. (The African Review will -eventually- publish my research findings, which I’ll post here when available.) Ever since my first trip to Rwanda back in 2008, I initially held only a moderate interest in Rwanda’s political dynamics. The reason it had always been ‘moderate’ stemmed from the fact that President Paul Kagame was the nation’s unquestioned leader.
After all, he oversaw the end of the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, Rwanda’s turbulent early years after the Genocide and helped modernise the state once he took over the Presidency back in 2000. Under his watch, millions have been lifted out of extreme poverty, electrical and water accessibility and utilisation increased dramatically, and the nation reached a level of security and stability not seen in quite a while. Unlike many of my Global North colleagues who criticise Rwanda’s human rights and democracy, I take a somewhat different approach.
Based on discussions with more Rwandans than I can count over the last fifteen years, my issues focus more on public transport infrastructure, the economic divide between urban and rural communities and jobs. For most Rwandans, these are the issues they care about. Unfortunately, as these problems are common for many nations, they are not grandiose enough to feel like crusaders for human rights.
The 2015 Referendum and President Kagame’s Supporters:
Back in 2015, a national referendum was held to amend the Rwandan constitution to allow President Kagame to serve beyond the existing two-term limit, each of seven years. As expected, the referendum was a clear victory for President Kagame. While many Global North researchers/activists condemned the election, I once again held a different opinion. Many Rwandans expressed their desire for Paul Kagame to continue as their President based on pragmatic reasons. Unlike the rise of populism in the Global North, Rwandans would rather have political stability. This desire can partially be explained by Rwanda’s historical experience of an open political system in the early 1990s. Rather than being the beacon which brought prosperity, it was a cause of the Genocide. Political parties such as the Coalition pour la Défense de la République (CDR) used the open political space to fuel anti-Tutsi hatred. By being in Parliament, their ideology was not only acknowledged by society but also became widely accepted as the norm within the political spectrum.
The turbulence of Rwanda’s chaotic democracy in the early 1990s prompted a harsh response from younger Rwandans. The number of Rwandan millennials and Generation Z who openly discussed their concerns about Rwanda returning to that level of political instability is quite large. Many heard from their parents or elders that political parties focused more on securing power than on representing the needs of the population. Political parties such as the CDR and the Mouvement Révolutionnaire National pour le Développement (MRND) seemed more concerned about securitising Rwanda’s Tutsi population than actually fulfilling the responsibilities of the state.
However, many Rwandans, both young and old, expressed a simple reason for their continued support for President Kagame: under his watch, Rwanda’s economy had grown, with healthcare and educational facilities opening across the nation. The nation’s internal security, which is often the target of human rights activists, is perhaps the driving reason behind many Rwandans support. Fundamentally, many Rwandans believe that without security, one cannot plan for the future, create a business, or feel safe in their community. However, they did not materialise immediately after the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) won the Campaign against Genocide War, as personal clashes, corruption, and poor leadership existed under the Pasteur Bizimungu administration, as described by Kimonyo. Instead, many Rwandans believe President Kagame is responsible for Rwanda’s growth and thus credit him for these achievements.
The referendum allowed President Kagame to seek additional terms. His third term would consist of another seven years with the possibility of two additional five-year terms. If President Kagame fulfils these terms, he will be well into his 70s. However, there are some rumours that this five-year term could be President Kagame’s last. While there is no substantial evidence to support it, one young Rwandan commented that, if true, she would want to know in advance to prepare for a post-Kagame Rwanda. Like others, all she knows is that President Kagame is in charge and is nervous about whether Rwanda will be truly ready when he departs.
Questions on who Rwanda’s next President will be:
Nevertheless, the question is being asked, with even President Kagame himself pointing to the RPF as a potential successor.
Rather than list potential candidates (which I could do in another post if enough people ask), I first want to see the primary issues that the RPF will have to decide when choosing the eventual replacement for the President. It is a difficult decision, with multiple secondary questions that will influence the final person selected. Below are a few of those questions.
- Military or Civilian?
Two of Rwanda’s Presidents have been military figures, either before or during their ascension to the ultimate office. The first is Juvénal Habyarimana (1973-1994), who seized power in a 1973 coup d’état against Grégoire Kayibanda. Habayrimana had been the Minister of Defence and one of the few Northern Hutus in Kayibanda’s (1962-1973) cabinet. While many outsiders know Rwanda by its genocide, few know how, at times, Hutu hatred was not only directed at Tutsis. During the First (under Kayibanda) and Second (under Habyarimana), being a Hutu might not be enough. As Kayibanda favoured the southern Hutus, Habyarimana preferred the northern Hutus for government, economic and military opportunities. Who was favoured depended on the President’s origin.
An example of this Hutu hierarchy can be seen in the current Minister of Defence, Juvenal Marizamunda, who was denied promotions during the Habyarimana regime as he came from the south. His punishment for being a southern Hutu only ended after the Genocide (he had been in France during much of the Genocide against the Tutsi) when the previous Defence Minister, President Kagame himself, promoted him after reviewing his history. He questioned how someone with such a military background, trained in France, the United States, and other nations, could be a lower rank than what one would expect. Thus, he promoted him twice. (I discuss it in more detail in my recent book on the Campaign against Genocide War in Kigali.)
President Kagame is the second President to have served in the military before becoming President. His military achievements with the RPF’s military wing, the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA), are documented by multiple researchers, including Kinzer, Kegel and me. However, President Kagame’s military background does not necessarily mean his successor must have a similar one.
A question arises of whether the next President should have some sort of military background. Surprisingly, this question was hotly debated by many of my informants. Some believe that a President should have a military background. Hence, they know the horrors and the price of war and can thus carefully steer Rwanda through the turbulent waters of promoting its security and interests without unnecessary conflicts.
Others disagree, believing that the period of Rwandan history is over. There is little chance that Rwanda will be engulfed in another major war that would require a wartime President. Recall Aimable Havugiyaremye, the former Prosecutor General, who became the Secretary General of the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS). He was not an active member of the Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF), and, according to some unverified comments, he is a civilian with no military background. Once again, I have not been able to confirm this claim fully, but it is still very important. If President Kagame can rely on a legal expert to lead one of the most important government organisations, it indicates a willingness for a pure civilian to be President.
There have been times when I have met with RDF officials and joked about them becoming the next President. Many will have a quick laugh and a one-line response, saying how they are not interested in the position. They trust President Kagame and believe the military serves the government rather than the other way around. I know some critics of the Rwandan government will scoff at that notion, but it’s a genuine belief. Even Rwandan civilians are not entirely sure whether the next President must have a military background.
- Man or Woman?
Rwanda leads byexample much of the global push for more women in politics. The Rwandan Parliament has two chambers: the Senate (upper house) and the Chamber of Deputies (lower house). In the Senate, 46.2% of Senators are women, with the Chamber comprising 63.75%. Many government ministers, ministers of state and permanent secretaries are women. However, some critics question whether women hold positions of actual power or are just seen as appeasing changing international gender norms. While I have little to say on that topic, I focus instead on whether the next President should be a woman.
At first glance, it would seem a foregone conclusion that Rwanda’s next President will be a woman, given the country’s promotion of women across society, governance, and the economy. An anecdotal illustration of this expectation can be seen in the BBC’s 2018 drama Black Earth Rising, which had the President played by a woman. However, the narrative of Rwanda’s promotion of women seems to have quieted down recently. This comment is not meant to suggest it has disappeared compared to the 2000s or early 2010s; it has certainly reduced in frequency.
Thus, the question again arises: Should the next President be a man or a woman? Rwanda is still a deeply conservative society despite dramatic social reforms. Does this suggest that Rwandans would prefer a man to a woman as their leader? This is not necessarily the case. While there are no doubt Rwandans who believe only a man should be President, this is the minority. However, younger Rwandans are turning away from religion, as seen in other parts of the world and becoming more liberal, especially when it comes to gender roles. Thus, the importance of gender in the discussion of Rwanda’s next President is not as significant as it could have been.
- Strong Man Leader or?
Many Global North critics argue that President Kagame is an African strongman who prioritises his interests over the human rights and dignity of Rwandans. As one can imagine, I do not hold these beliefs. Rwandans’ definition of what comprises a ‘strong man’ (putting gender dynamics aside) may differ from that of someone in the United States, Japan, or the United Kingdom in the Global North. Rather than describing a ‘strong man’ leader as a dictator, many within Rwanda describe the term as referring to a leader with a clear vision for the nation and willing to do what it takes to reach it. This includes combating corruption and inefficiencies, defending Rwandan interests and dignity and promoting development. President Kagame is that ‘strong man leader’ as he is known as a person not to be crossed.
While there are numerous examples, I wish to highlight the annual cabinet (ministerial) retreats (Umwiherero). Former ministers and participants in these retreats tell of stressful encounters with President Kagame, who demanded to know what led to inefficiencies, corruption cases and the lack of progress. He is not shy about calling out underperforming officials, as he sees them wasting not only taxpayers’ money but also the nation’s future. As I wrote in other articles, President Kagame and members of his inner circle worry about a return to Rwanda’s dark past.
While it is inconceivable to believe it based on visiting Rwanda today, many of those in policy decision positions are the ones who ended or at least witnessed the horrors of the Genocide. Many of these people have some form of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) after witnessing some of the worst horrors of humanity. Thus, their concern about preventing Rwanda from returning to those dark days strongly influences their decision-making.
However, there is a fear that President Kagame is a leader Rwanda will only benefit from once in a lifetime. As one Rwandan commented to me, “It is easier for another Habyarimana to gain power through divisionism, scapegoating and hatred than to find another Kagame.” While this interpretation is rather pessimistic about Rwandans’ ability to avoid going backwards, the concern remains. How to prevent this is perhaps not by finding the perfect candidate but by establishing restraints on future Presidential power.
Over the last decade, I have noticed an increase in the power of Parliament and the courts within Rwanda’s government. There appears to be (and, through conversations with some RPF, is confirmed) a drive to develop the government’s other branches (Judicial and Legislative) and the bureaucracy. These institutions, which are still in the early stages, will eventually have greater power to shape the nation’s public policy, thereby reducing the need for a ‘strong man’ president. This will require removing some political power from the Executive branch, which is unlikely in the near future. However, Rwanda’s future can be akin to that of a nation with a robust bureaucracy that can govern even amid political challenges (i.e., Belgium).
It is important to note that many Global North researchers dismiss this assumption, but I believe it should still be considered.
- Sir Alex Ferguson Syndrome
The final issue came to my attention back in 2014 while conducting PhD fieldwork. While the less I discuss my PhD experience, the better, this was perhaps one of the most interesting takes I had heard. While having coffee with a former Rwandan official, I had mentioned that some rumours were circulating that he might be President Kagame’s future successor. The man quickly dismissed the rumour, but not in the manner I had expected.
After first dismissing interest in the potential job (akin to the responses of many whom I have asked), he began praising President Kagame’s accomplishments. None of what he said was new to me, but he wanted me to hear it again for a particular reason. After speaking for at least five minutes about all that President Kagame has done since becoming President, he asked how anyone could come after all those accomplishments.
He put it in football terms, referring to the recently departed Manchester United manager, Sir Alex Ferguson. For decades, Ferguson led Manchester United to win nearly every competition there was. He became the face of the football club, with few (outside the United States) not knowing the man. When he decided to step down and retire from the manager position, David Moyes, who had been the manager at Everton Football Club and recently returned to the club, became the new manager of Manchester United. The 2013-2014 season went relatively poorly, with no trophies won and the loss of the opportunity to play in the UEFA’s Champions League. Looking back, Moyes was in a somewhat difficult position. The fans expected more from their club than Moyes could deliver, with some accusing Ferguson specifically of choosing Moyes as his replacement, knowing he would not be able to replicate his success. Thus, Ferguson would look even more like a football genius compared to his successor.
The former Rwandan official brought up Ferguson and Moyes as a metaphor for whoever becomes Rwanda’s President after Kagame. No matter who is next, their accomplishments will always be compared to President Kagame’s. He even commented that he could make Rwanda the best country in the world, but would be seen as second-best to President Kagame. He defended this reality by again stating not only Kagame’s accomplishments as President but also how he ended the Genocide against the Tutsi. Thus, President Kagame will always be seen as that great leader who no one could even compare to. For some, such as this Rwandan official, it is too great a task to take over from someone who had achieved so much for his nation.
Conclusion:
These are the questions that the RPF’s hierarchy needs to answer before President Kagame eventually retires. It is highly unlikely that he will leave Rwanda to take up a position in international politics, such as at the African Union, the United Nations, or similar organisations. His focus remains on Rwanda’s development to prevent historical repetition. Despite the Global North’s critics, President Kagame has achieved more than his predecessors could have imagined.
I remember during the 2024 election, a statement circulated by Maryse Mbonyumutwa, the granddaughter of Dominique Mbonyumutwa, former interim President of Rwanda in 1961, proclaiming her support for President Kagame. Despite being the granddaughter of one of the founders of Hutu extremism, she proudly acknowledged that President Kagame had transformed Rwanda for the better. It became a bit of a rallying call during the election to justify their continued support for President Kagame. This story illustrates how Rwandans are largely satisfied with the current political dynamics as long as President Kagame remains in power. He is the steady hand pushing the nation forward. That is not to say Rwanda is free from problems, as mentioned earlier. However, there are no perfect nations; each faces similar issues.
The next President of Rwanda will face significant challenges, with the shadow of President Kagame’s accomplishments always looming. This comment is not to discourage or dismiss the successor, but an acknowledgement of how far Rwanda has come since its dark days in 1994. Nations and societies take time to develop and stabilise, with many forces, such as populism in the Global North, that could lead the country down the wrong path. Unfortunately, Rwanda’s first two presidents led the nation down a path of destruction, needless ethnic divisions and poverty. Whoever is the next President will have to be careful, which means the RPF must be cautious in who they ultimately decide to be the next candidate once President Kagame eventually walks into the sunset.
Let me know if you want a follow-up article on potential candidates, along with who you (Rwandans) believe would be an ideal replacement for President Kagame.
Jonathan R Beloff 