Election – Jonathan R Beloff

In July 2024, I had the privilege to be perhaps the only independent Western researcher allowed to observe Rwanda’s Presidential and parliamentary elections. (The African Review will -eventually- publish my research findings, which I’ll post here when available.) Ever since my first trip to Rwanda back in 2008, I initially held only a moderate interest in Rwanda’s political dynamics. The reason it had always been ‘moderate’ stemmed from the fact that President Paul Kagame was the nation’s unquestioned leader.

After all, he oversaw the end of the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, Rwanda’s turbulent early years after the Genocide and helped modernise the state once he took over the Presidency back in 2000. Under his watch, millions have been lifted out of extreme poverty, electrical and water accessibility and utilisation increased dramatically, and the nation reached a level of security and stability not seen in quite a while. Unlike many of my Global North colleagues who criticise Rwanda’s human rights and democracy, I take a somewhat different approach.

Based on discussions with more Rwandans than I can count over the last fifteen years, my issues focus more on public transport infrastructure, the economic divide between urban and rural communities and jobs. For most Rwandans, these are the issues they care about. Unfortunately, as these problems are common for many nations, they are not grandiose enough to feel like crusaders for human rights.

The 2015 Referendum and President Kagame’s Supporters:

Back in 2015, a national referendum was held to amend the Rwandan constitution to allow President Kagame to serve beyond the existing two-term limit, each of seven years. As expected, the referendum was a clear victory for President Kagame. While many Global North researchers/activists condemned the election, I once again held a different opinion. Many Rwandans expressed their desire for Paul Kagame to continue as their President based on pragmatic reasons. Unlike the rise of populism in the Global North, Rwandans would rather have political stability. This desire can partially be explained by Rwanda’s historical experience of an open political system in the early 1990s. Rather than being the beacon which brought prosperity, it was a cause of the Genocide. Political parties such as the Coalition pour la Défense de la République (CDR) used the open political space to fuel anti-Tutsi hatred. By being in Parliament, their ideology was not only acknowledged by society but also became widely accepted as the norm within the political spectrum.

The turbulence of Rwanda’s chaotic democracy in the early 1990s prompted a harsh response from younger Rwandans. The number of Rwandan millennials and Generation Z who openly discussed their concerns about Rwanda returning to that level of political instability is quite large. Many heard from their parents or elders that political parties focused more on securing power than on representing the needs of the population. Political parties such as the CDR and the Mouvement Révolutionnaire National pour le Développement (MRND) seemed more concerned about securitising Rwanda’s Tutsi population than actually fulfilling the responsibilities of the state.

However, many Rwandans, both young and old, expressed a simple reason for their continued support for President Kagame: under his watch, Rwanda’s economy had grown, with healthcare and educational facilities opening across the nation. The nation’s internal security, which is often the target of human rights activists, is perhaps the driving reason behind many Rwandans support. Fundamentally, many Rwandans believe that without security, one cannot plan for the future, create a business, or feel safe in their community. However, they did not materialise immediately after the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) won the Campaign against Genocide War, as personal clashes, corruption, and poor leadership existed under the Pasteur Bizimungu administration, as described by Kimonyo. Instead, many Rwandans believe President Kagame is responsible for Rwanda’s growth and thus credit him for these achievements.

The referendum allowed President Kagame to seek additional terms. His third term would consist of another seven years with the possibility of two additional five-year terms. If President Kagame fulfils these terms, he will be well into his 70s. However, there are some rumours that this five-year term could be President Kagame’s last. While there is no substantial evidence to support it, one young Rwandan commented that, if true, she would want to know in advance to prepare for a post-Kagame Rwanda. Like others, all she knows is that President Kagame is in charge and is nervous about whether Rwanda will be truly ready when he departs.

Questions on who Rwanda’s next President will be:

Nevertheless, the question is being asked, with even President Kagame himself pointing to the RPF as a potential successor.

Rather than list potential candidates (which I could do in another post if enough people ask), I first want to see the primary issues that the RPF will have to decide when choosing the eventual replacement for the President. It is a difficult decision, with multiple secondary questions that will influence the final person selected. Below are a few of those questions.

Military or Civilian?

Two of Rwanda’s Presidents have been military figures, either before or during their ascension to the ultimate office. The first is Juvénal Habyarimana (1973-1994), who seized power in a 1973 coup d’état against Grégoire Kayibanda. Habayrimana had been the Minister of Defence and one of the few Northern Hutus in Kayibanda’s (1962-1973) cabinet. While many outsiders know Rwanda by its genocide, few know how, at times, Hutu hatred was not only directed at Tutsis. During the First (under Kayibanda) and Second (under Habyarimana), being a Hutu might not be enough. As Kayibanda favoured the southern Hutus, Habyarimana preferred the northern Hutus for government, economic and military opportunities. Who was favoured depended on the President’s origin.

An example of this Hutu hierarchy can be seen in the current Minister of Defence, Juvenal Marizamunda, who was denied promotions during the Habyarimana regime as he came from the south. His punishment for being a southern Hutu only ended after the Genocide (he had been in France during much of the Genocide against the Tutsi) when the previous Defence Minister, President Kagame himself, promoted him after reviewing his history. He questioned how someone with such a military background, trained in France, the United States, and other nations, could be a lower rank than what one would expect. Thus, he promoted him twice. (I discuss it in more detail in my recent book on the Campaign against Genocide War in Kigali.)

President Kagame is the second President to have served in the military before becoming President. His military achievements with the RPF’s military wing, the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA), are documented by multiple researchers, including Kinzer, Kegel and me. However, President Kagame’s military background does not necessarily mean his successor must have a similar one.

A question arises of whether the next President should have some sort of military background. Surprisingly, this question was hotly debated by many of my informants. Some believe that a President should have a military background. Hence, they know the horrors and the price of war and can thus carefully steer Rwanda through the turbulent waters of promoting its security and interests without unnecessary conflicts.

Others disagree, believing that the period of Rwandan history is over. There is little chance that Rwanda will be engulfed in another major war that would require a wartime President. Recall Aimable Havugiyaremye, the former Prosecutor General, who became the Secretary General of the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS). He was not an active member of the Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF), and, according to some unverified comments, he is a civilian with no military background. Once again, I have not been able to confirm this claim fully, but it is still very important. If President Kagame can rely on a legal expert to lead one of the most important government organisations, it indicates a willingness for a pure civilian to be President.

There have been times when I have met with RDF officials and joked about them becoming the next President. Many will have a quick laugh and a one-line response, saying how they are not interested in the position. They trust President Kagame and believe the military serves the government rather than the other way around. I know some critics of the Rwandan government will scoff at that notion, but it’s a genuine belief. Even Rwandan civilians are not entirely sure whether the next President must have a military background.

Man or Woman?

Rwanda leads byexample much of the global push for more women in politics. The Rwandan Parliament has two chambers: the Senate (upper house) and the Chamber of Deputies (lower house). In the Senate, 46.2% of Senators are women, with the Chamber comprising 63.75%. Many government ministers, ministers of state and permanent secretaries are women. However, some critics question whether women hold positions of actual power or are just seen as appeasing changing international gender norms. While I have little to say on that topic, I focus instead on whether the next President should be a woman.

At first glance, it would seem a foregone conclusion that Rwanda’s next President will be a woman, given the country’s promotion of women across society, governance, and the economy. An anecdotal illustration of this expectation can be seen in the BBC’s 2018 drama Black Earth Rising, which had the President played by a woman. However, the narrative of Rwanda’s promotion of women seems to have quieted down recently. This comment is not meant to suggest it has disappeared compared to the 2000s or early 2010s; it has certainly reduced in frequency.

Thus, the question again arises: Should the next President be a man or a woman? Rwanda is still a deeply conservative society despite dramatic social reforms. Does this suggest that Rwandans would prefer a man to a woman as their leader? This is not necessarily the case. While there are no doubt Rwandans who believe only a man should be President, this is the minority. However, younger Rwandans are turning away from religion, as seen in other parts of the world and becoming more liberal, especially when it comes to gender roles. Thus, the importance of gender in the discussion of Rwanda’s next President is not as significant as it could have been.

Strong Man Leader or?

Many Global North critics argue that President Kagame is an African strongman who prioritises his interests over the human rights and dignity of Rwandans. As one can imagine, I do not hold these beliefs. Rwandans’ definition of what comprises a ‘strong man’ (putting gender dynamics aside) may differ from that of someone in the United States, Japan, or the United Kingdom in the Global North. Rather than describing a ‘strong man’ leader as a dictator, many within Rwanda describe the term as referring to a leader with a clear vision for the nation and willing to do what it takes to reach it. This includes combating corruption and inefficiencies, defending Rwandan interests and dignity and promoting development. President Kagame is that ‘strong man leader’ as he is known as a person not to be crossed.

While there are numerous examples, I wish to highlight the annual cabinet (ministerial) retreats (Umwiherero). Former ministers and participants in these retreats tell of stressful encounters with President Kagame, who demanded to know what led to inefficiencies, corruption cases and the lack of progress. He is not shy about calling out underperforming officials, as he sees them wasting not only taxpayers’ money but also the nation’s future. As I wrote in other articles, President Kagame and members of his inner circle worry about a return to Rwanda’s dark past.

While it is inconceivable to believe it based on visiting Rwanda today, many of those in policy decision positions are the ones who ended or at least witnessed the horrors of the Genocide. Many of these people have some form of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) after witnessing some of the worst horrors of humanity. Thus, their concern about preventing Rwanda from returning to those dark days strongly influences their decision-making.

However, there is a fear that President Kagame is a leader Rwanda will only benefit from once in a lifetime. As one Rwandan commented to me, “It is easier for another Habyarimana to gain power through divisionism, scapegoating and hatred than to find another Kagame.” While this interpretation is rather pessimistic about Rwandans’ ability to avoid going backwards, the concern remains. How to prevent this is perhaps not by finding the perfect candidate but by establishing restraints on future Presidential power.

Over the last decade, I have noticed an increase in the power of Parliament and the courts within Rwanda’s government. There appears to be (and, through conversations with some RPF, is confirmed) a drive to develop the government’s other branches (Judicial and Legislative) and the bureaucracy. These institutions, which are still in the early stages, will eventually have greater power to shape the nation’s public policy, thereby reducing the need for a ‘strong man’ president. This will require removing some political power from the Executive branch, which is unlikely in the near future. However, Rwanda’s future can be akin to that of a nation with a robust bureaucracy that can govern even amid political challenges (i.e., Belgium).

It is important to note that many Global North researchers dismiss this assumption, but I believe it should still be considered.

Sir Alex Ferguson Syndrome

The final issue came to my attention back in 2014 while conducting PhD fieldwork. While the less I discuss my PhD experience, the better, this was perhaps one of the most interesting takes I had heard. While having coffee with a former Rwandan official, I had mentioned that some rumours were circulating that he might be President Kagame’s future successor. The man quickly dismissed the rumour, but not in the manner I had expected.

After first dismissing interest in the potential job (akin to the responses of many whom I have asked), he began praising President Kagame’s accomplishments. None of what he said was new to me, but he wanted me to hear it again for a particular reason. After speaking for at least five minutes about all that President Kagame has done since becoming President, he asked how anyone could come after all those accomplishments.

He put it in football terms, referring to the recently departed Manchester United manager, Sir Alex Ferguson. For decades, Ferguson led Manchester United to win nearly every competition there was. He became the face of the football club, with few (outside the United States) not knowing the man. When he decided to step down and retire from the manager position, David Moyes, who had been the manager at Everton Football Club and recently returned to the club, became the new manager of Manchester United. The 2013-2014 season went relatively poorly, with no trophies won and the loss of the opportunity to play in the UEFA’s Champions League. Looking back, Moyes was in a somewhat difficult position. The fans expected more from their club than Moyes could deliver, with some accusing Ferguson specifically of choosing Moyes as his replacement, knowing he would not be able to replicate his success. Thus, Ferguson would look even more like a football genius compared to his successor.

The former Rwandan official brought up Ferguson and Moyes as a metaphor for whoever becomes Rwanda’s President after Kagame. No matter who is next, their accomplishments will always be compared to President Kagame’s. He even commented that he could make Rwanda the best country in the world, but would be seen as second-best to President Kagame. He defended this reality by again stating not only Kagame’s accomplishments as President but also how he ended the Genocide against the Tutsi. Thus, President Kagame will always be seen as that great leader who no one could even compare to. For some, such as this Rwandan official, it is too great a task to take over from someone who had achieved so much for his nation.

Conclusion:

These are the questions that the RPF’s hierarchy needs to answer before President Kagame eventually retires. It is highly unlikely that he will leave Rwanda to take up a position in international politics, such as at the African Union, the United Nations, or similar organisations. His focus remains on Rwanda’s development to prevent historical repetition. Despite the Global North’s critics, President Kagame has achieved more than his predecessors could have imagined.

I remember during the 2024 election, a statement circulated by Maryse Mbonyumutwa, the granddaughter of Dominique Mbonyumutwa, former interim President of Rwanda in 1961, proclaiming her support for President Kagame. Despite being the granddaughter of one of the founders of Hutu extremism, she proudly acknowledged that President Kagame had transformed Rwanda for the better. It became a bit of a rallying call during the election to justify their continued support for President Kagame. This story illustrates how Rwandans are largely satisfied with the current political dynamics as long as President Kagame remains in power. He is the steady hand pushing the nation forward. That is not to say Rwanda is free from problems, as mentioned earlier. However, there are no perfect nations; each faces similar issues.

The next President of Rwanda will face significant challenges, with the shadow of President Kagame’s accomplishments always looming. This comment is not to discourage or dismiss the successor, but an acknowledgement of how far Rwanda has come since its dark days in 1994. Nations and societies take time to develop and stabilise, with many forces, such as populism in the Global North, that could lead the country down the wrong path. Unfortunately, Rwanda’s first two presidents led the nation down a path of destruction, needless ethnic divisions and poverty. Whoever is the next President will have to be careful, which means the RPF must be cautious in who they ultimately decide to be the next candidate once President Kagame eventually walks into the sunset.

Let me know if you want a follow-up article on potential candidates, along with who you (Rwandans) believe would be an ideal replacement for President Kagame.

On 11 August, Paul Kagame was sworn in for another term as President after winning the recent July 2024 Presidential election. He won over 99% of the vote, promising a continuation of Rwanda’s current tract towards development. Unlike the smaller parties, President Kagame and his Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) promised broad development ideas, security and continued stability. Other political parties and his presidential opponents, such as Green Party Leader Dr Frank Habineza and Independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana, focused more on specific public policy ideas. While only being appointed President back in 2000, he has been the primary political actor since the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi. International critics in academia and human rights organisations question what they see as President Kagame’s authoritarian rule over the country.

Since officially taking power, President Kagame’s primary policy goals consist of security, national development and stopping the cycle of ethnic divisions which led to Rwanda’s genocide. These policies are all under the social contract between President Kagame and his RPF with Rwandans. The political establishment retains power to guide Rwanda’s development, and in return, the population receives security, stability and improvement in their daily lives, such as electricity, health care facilities and schooling. However, President Kagame faces significant challenges in ensuring Rwanda’s continued development. These challenges include the growing socio-economic divisions, the rural-urban divide, the need for growth in the private sector, and the effects of climate change on Rwanda’s agricultural industry. Below are the broad issues which will occupy President Kagame’s next five years.

Continuing the Stability:

During the RPF’s campaign, promises of continued stability were found throughout the country. This encompasses several aspects of life beyond security, including economic and political factors. The stability issue could be heard frequently during President Kagame’s campaign speeches. He often promised continued stability for Rwandans, which was seemingly very welcomed. During the day of domestic voting on 15 July, many Rwandans discussed their desire for continued stability. The concept broadly meant for these Rwandans how they could set up their lives knowing that their investments, whether in terms of a business, farmland, etc, will still be intact in the future.

Economic stability encompasses the continued progress of Rwanda’s current path of development. Rwanda aspires to become a middle-income country by 2035, which requires significant economic growth. Beyond the global COVID-19 economic slowdown, Rwanda consistently sees GDP annual growth rates between 3.9 to 10.9 per cent. While there are accusations that these numbers are intentionally inflated, it is hard to argue with Rwanda’s growth over the past decade. Nevertheless, stability is a foundation for economic development as investors and businesses will be less concerned about future risks while establishing a business or investing. The lack of instability means their economic venture will not depreciate because of insecurity or violence, unlike in Rwanda’s past. Significant challenges still face Rwanda’s growth, such as the need for larger foreign direct investment in the private sector, the reduction of foreign debt, and unemployment. The issue of youth unemployment is a pressing concern, as seen in neighbouring Kenya. However, Rwandans seem to trust that President Kagame can best handle these challenges. Nevertheless, he and his government will need to do more to help spur economic growth.

Stability often incorporates issues of state security. Rwanda receives criticism from international human rights specialists for an overt security state. A critical element within the social contract between the government and the population is the promise of security. The insecurity of the early 1990s found in the Liberation War, also referred to as the Rwandan Civil War in the West, the Genocide against the Tutsi and the later 1994-1996 attacks from neighbouring Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have largely ended since President Kagame took power. Physical security is important not only in terms of state security but for the previously mentioned economic stability. Rwanda’s security agencies, the Rwanda National Police (RNP), Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) and the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), largely keep Rwanda safe from security threats and instabilities from a region, the African Great Lakes, which is rife with civil wars, rebel groups and political turmoil. President Kagame’s government will need to continue to promote national security from physical, specifically the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and ontological, from genocide ideology, threats.

Finally, Rwandans’ desire for political stability seems contrary to the West’s increasing waves of populism and ‘change’ elections. While human rights organisations promote political fringe actors within Rwanda’s public space, such as Victoire Ingabire, most Rwandans are largely risk-averse to these political attitudes. Before the Genocide, from 1990-1994, Rwanda contained the multiparty democracy often preached by human rights groups. As Guichaoua describes, this period contained significant political turmoil, infighting and assassinations. It additionally opened the door for Hutu populism and genocide ideology to be legitimised as political actors, as seen by the establishment of the Coalition pour la Défense de la République (CDR). The political instability of this time is primarily remembered by Rwandans who lived during the early 1990s.

During the domestic voting day, one elderly lady discussed how the period’s instability, or as she called chaos, influenced her current desire for the present political stability. Whether she agreed with President Kagame and the RPF’s policies, she supports the significant decrease in political instability since they took power. The memory of the past political instability has yet to be properly understood as one of the reasons why Rwandans are so accommodating to President Kagame’s promises of continued political stability. He and the RPF must address what happens after he eventually steps down from power, which could lead to instability if not appropriately handled.

Who is the Successor?

One of the pressing questions that lurked before, during and after the election was who would eventually be President Kagame’s successor. During an RPF conference last March, President Kagame called for his party to start discussing his eventual replacement. While he can run for an additional five-year term after his current one finishes in 2029, being 71 years old, there seems to be a growing sense that this might be it for him.

During the Gahanga campaign rally on 13 July, some Rwandans commented on their anxiety about Rwanda’s future when Kagame is no longer President. He is the symbol of Rwanda’s post-genocide consistency and for Rwanda’s large youth population, over 65 per cent under the age of 35, the only President they know. Finding the appropriate successor is a dubious prospect, as relatively few candidates could take the role. Additionally, one Rwandan official commented how succeeding President Kagame will be a tall task with little upside as their accomplishments will always be compared to their predecessor.

However, the question of the successor is perhaps not as important as one might assume. One RPF party official commented that there is no substantial desire within the party to pick another strong man (or woman) candidate after President Kagame eventually steps down. Akin to the Rwandan official, there is a sense of fear that whoever succeeds him will never be able to live up to the mantle left behind. There is a greater chance for the successor to be unable or incapable of being that strong leader, as seen with Pasteur Bizimungu’s lacklustre presidency from 1994-2000. Thus, they have a rather different vision for Rwanda’s future leadership.

The assumption that President Kagame’s successor needs to be a strong man/woman leader is perhaps problematic. There is a sense that the RPF and some Rwandans want to develop the political and governing institutions rather than finding another Paul Kagame. The belief is to develop the effectiveness and independence of the legislative, courts and government institutions (ministries and boards) to such an extent that Rwanda will no longer need a singular leader as they have now. This is a tall task for a government which took form after the implementation of the 2003 Constitution. Nevertheless, the RPF seem to push for the development of these institutions, often with young bureaucrats and officials, rather than find another singular strong leader. Either way, President Kagame and his RPF will need to find a succession plan, whether an individual or strengthening the governing institutions, before he steps down from power.

Conclusion:

With the 2024 presidential election over and President Kagame sworn in for another five-year term, the Rwandan government has much to do to continue Rwanda’s development. Economic challenges will remain on top of the President’s agenda as national growth is still critical so that Rwanda does not fall backwards. Beyond the economy, he will also have to continue the advancements of social programs (healthcare and education), security (from physical and ontological threats) and infrastructure (roads along with water and electricity expansion). Most importantly, he will have to continue the current stability that Rwandans expect despite perhaps the need to take greater risks to develop the economy and attract foreign investment. While many will look for the individual who will eventually succeed Paul Kagame as President, the true test for the government will be whether it can increase its capabilities and capacity to be the true leader of Rwanda’s future.