On 11 August, Paul Kagame was sworn in for another term as President after winning the recent July 2024 Presidential election. He won over 99% of the vote, promising a continuation of Rwanda’s current tract towards development. Unlike the smaller parties, President Kagame and his Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) promised broad development ideas, security and continued stability. Other political parties and his presidential opponents, such as Green Party Leader Dr Frank Habineza and Independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana, focused more on specific public policy ideas. While only being appointed President back in 2000, he has been the primary political actor since the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi. International critics in academia and human rights organisations question what they see as President Kagame’s authoritarian rule over the country.
Since officially taking power, President Kagame’s primary policy goals consist of security, national development and stopping the cycle of ethnic divisions which led to Rwanda’s genocide. These policies are all under the social contract between President Kagame and his RPF with Rwandans. The political establishment retains power to guide Rwanda’s development, and in return, the population receives security, stability and improvement in their daily lives, such as electricity, health care facilities and schooling. However, President Kagame faces significant challenges in ensuring Rwanda’s continued development. These challenges include the growing socio-economic divisions, the rural-urban divide, the need for growth in the private sector, and the effects of climate change on Rwanda’s agricultural industry. Below are the broad issues which will occupy President Kagame’s next five years.
Continuing the Stability:
During the RPF’s campaign, promises of continued stability were found throughout the country. This encompasses several aspects of life beyond security, including economic and political factors. The stability issue could be heard frequently during President Kagame’s campaign speeches. He often promised continued stability for Rwandans, which was seemingly very welcomed. During the day of domestic voting on 15 July, many Rwandans discussed their desire for continued stability. The concept broadly meant for these Rwandans how they could set up their lives knowing that their investments, whether in terms of a business, farmland, etc, will still be intact in the future.
Economic stability encompasses the continued progress of Rwanda’s current path of development. Rwanda aspires to become a middle-income country by 2035, which requires significant economic growth. Beyond the global COVID-19 economic slowdown, Rwanda consistently sees GDP annual growth rates between 3.9 to 10.9 per cent. While there are accusations that these numbers are intentionally inflated, it is hard to argue with Rwanda’s growth over the past decade. Nevertheless, stability is a foundation for economic development as investors and businesses will be less concerned about future risks while establishing a business or investing. The lack of instability means their economic venture will not depreciate because of insecurity or violence, unlike in Rwanda’s past. Significant challenges still face Rwanda’s growth, such as the need for larger foreign direct investment in the private sector, the reduction of foreign debt, and unemployment. The issue of youth unemployment is a pressing concern, as seen in neighbouring Kenya. However, Rwandans seem to trust that President Kagame can best handle these challenges. Nevertheless, he and his government will need to do more to help spur economic growth.
Stability often incorporates issues of state security. Rwanda receives criticism from international human rights specialists for an overt security state. A critical element within the social contract between the government and the population is the promise of security. The insecurity of the early 1990s found in the Liberation War, also referred to as the Rwandan Civil War in the West, the Genocide against the Tutsi and the later 1994-1996 attacks from neighbouring Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have largely ended since President Kagame took power. Physical security is important not only in terms of state security but for the previously mentioned economic stability. Rwanda’s security agencies, the Rwanda National Police (RNP), Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) and the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), largely keep Rwanda safe from security threats and instabilities from a region, the African Great Lakes, which is rife with civil wars, rebel groups and political turmoil. President Kagame’s government will need to continue to promote national security from physical, specifically the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and ontological, from genocide ideology, threats.
Finally, Rwandans’ desire for political stability seems contrary to the West’s increasing waves of populism and ‘change’ elections. While human rights organisations promote political fringe actors within Rwanda’s public space, such as Victoire Ingabire, most Rwandans are largely risk-averse to these political attitudes. Before the Genocide, from 1990-1994, Rwanda contained the multiparty democracy often preached by human rights groups. As Guichaoua describes, this period contained significant political turmoil, infighting and assassinations. It additionally opened the door for Hutu populism and genocide ideology to be legitimised as political actors, as seen by the establishment of the Coalition pour la Défense de la République (CDR). The political instability of this time is primarily remembered by Rwandans who lived during the early 1990s.
During the domestic voting day, one elderly lady discussed how the period’s instability, or as she called chaos, influenced her current desire for the present political stability. Whether she agreed with President Kagame and the RPF’s policies, she supports the significant decrease in political instability since they took power. The memory of the past political instability has yet to be properly understood as one of the reasons why Rwandans are so accommodating to President Kagame’s promises of continued political stability. He and the RPF must address what happens after he eventually steps down from power, which could lead to instability if not appropriately handled.
Who is the Successor?
One of the pressing questions that lurked before, during and after the election was who would eventually be President Kagame’s successor. During an RPF conference last March, President Kagame called for his party to start discussing his eventual replacement. While he can run for an additional five-year term after his current one finishes in 2029, being 71 years old, there seems to be a growing sense that this might be it for him.
During the Gahanga campaign rally on 13 July, some Rwandans commented on their anxiety about Rwanda’s future when Kagame is no longer President. He is the symbol of Rwanda’s post-genocide consistency and for Rwanda’s large youth population, over 65 per cent under the age of 35, the only President they know. Finding the appropriate successor is a dubious prospect, as relatively few candidates could take the role. Additionally, one Rwandan official commented how succeeding President Kagame will be a tall task with little upside as their accomplishments will always be compared to their predecessor.
However, the question of the successor is perhaps not as important as one might assume. One RPF party official commented that there is no substantial desire within the party to pick another strong man (or woman) candidate after President Kagame eventually steps down. Akin to the Rwandan official, there is a sense of fear that whoever succeeds him will never be able to live up to the mantle left behind. There is a greater chance for the successor to be unable or incapable of being that strong leader, as seen with Pasteur Bizimungu’s lacklustre presidency from 1994-2000. Thus, they have a rather different vision for Rwanda’s future leadership.
The assumption that President Kagame’s successor needs to be a strong man/woman leader is perhaps problematic. There is a sense that the RPF and some Rwandans want to develop the political and governing institutions rather than finding another Paul Kagame. The belief is to develop the effectiveness and independence of the legislative, courts and government institutions (ministries and boards) to such an extent that Rwanda will no longer need a singular leader as they have now. This is a tall task for a government which took form after the implementation of the 2003 Constitution. Nevertheless, the RPF seem to push for the development of these institutions, often with young bureaucrats and officials, rather than find another singular strong leader. Either way, President Kagame and his RPF will need to find a succession plan, whether an individual or strengthening the governing institutions, before he steps down from power.
Conclusion:
With the 2024 presidential election over and President Kagame sworn in for another five-year term, the Rwandan government has much to do to continue Rwanda’s development. Economic challenges will remain on top of the President’s agenda as national growth is still critical so that Rwanda does not fall backwards. Beyond the economy, he will also have to continue the advancements of social programs (healthcare and education), security (from physical and ontological threats) and infrastructure (roads along with water and electricity expansion). Most importantly, he will have to continue the current stability that Rwandans expect despite perhaps the need to take greater risks to develop the economy and attract foreign investment. While many will look for the individual who will eventually succeed Paul Kagame as President, the true test for the government will be whether it can increase its capabilities and capacity to be the true leader of Rwanda’s future.
Jonathan R Beloff 